Lula and Bolsonaro Neck and Neck in 2026 Presidential Poll

Brazil's 2026 Presidential Race Tightens: Lula and Bolsonaro in Statistical Dead Heat, New Poll Shows Brazil's upcoming 2026 presidential election is shaping up to be a close contest, according to a new poll released by Quaest. The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, reveals a statistical tie between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), both polling at 41% in a potential second-round scenario. This marks a significant shift from an April poll, where Lula held a clear lead. The current poll's margin of error is ±2 percentage points. The research also explored several other potential second-round matchups. In these scenarios, Lula is statistically tied with Tarcísio de Freitas (governor of São Paulo), Ratinho Júnior (governor of Paraná), Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul), and Michelle Bolsonaro (former first lady). In these scenarios, Lula's support ranged from 40% to 43%, demonstrating the competitiveness of the race. "The new Quaest poll shows a significant change from the previous survey," said Arthur Stabile, presenter of the G1 news segment. "While Lula previously held a clear advantage, the current data indicates a very tight race." The survey, conducted between May 29th and June 1st, interviewed 2,004 individuals aged 16 and older across Brazil. The findings highlight the uncertainty surrounding the 2026 election and suggest a potential for a closely fought campaign.